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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."